Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
